Experiment #92 · Thought experiment

The Bilking Argument

Why backward causation is allegedly incoherent

Max Black; Michael Dummett (precise formulation) · 1956 · Philosophy of causation, time

First published: M. Black, "Why Cannot an Effect Precede its Cause?", *Analysis* 16 (1956): 49–58.

If a future cause C produces a past effect E, then once you observe E happening, you can resolve not to do C — bilking the alleged causal link.

Black's argument against backward causation: suppose cause C at time t₂ produces effect E at earlier time t₁. Then an agent who observes E at t₁ can simply refrain from C at t₂; either E happens without C (no causation), or the agent's freedom is mysteriously curtailed. Dummett refined: the argument fails if the causal relation is statistical, or if information about E is not reliably accessible before t₂. The case is the central pressure-point for theories of time-travel, retrocausal interpretations of quantum mechanics, and the asymmetry between cause and effect.

Formulation

C at t₂ causes E at t₁. Agent observes E at t₁ and intends to not-C at t₂. Either E happens without C (refuting causation), or the agent is constrained (refuting their freedom). Conclusion: backward causation is incoherent — unless the agent's access to E or freedom to act is constrained.

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Dimensions Engaged

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Time

Time · Direction: is the cause-before-effect asymmetry essential, or contingent?

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Observer

Observer · Agency: bilking requires both knowledge of E and freedom over C — the puzzle interrogates both.

Responses — How Schools Engage

Affirms / takes the bait 1

Presentism

A natural ally: if only the present exists, the past is fixed and cannot be affected. The bilking argument formalises a deep presentist intuition.

Reframes the question 4

Naturalism

Standard physics is time-symmetric at the level of fundamental laws; the cause-effect asymmetry is statistical (thermodynamic), not absolute. Backward causation is not ruled out *a priori*.

Quantum Realism

Delayed-choice and quantum-eraser experiments motivate retrocausal readings (Cramer, Price); the bilking argument fails under appropriate accounts of quantum statistics.

Eternalism

In the block universe, "before" and "after" are geometric, not causal; backward causation is no more incoherent than forward causation, given the structure of the block.

Simulation Theory

A simulation could in principle re-render past states upon future inputs; the bilking argument depends on a one-way information flow that simulation architectures need not respect.

Holds it inconclusive 1

Analytic Metaphysics / Logical Atomism

Live debate: defenders of backward causation (Price, Dowe) deny that bilking generalises; opponents (Mellor) maintain the asymmetry. Quantum retrocausal interpretations make the question live again.